Welcome to 2025, where the markets party like it’s still 2023—full of surprises, strong opinions, and a dash of chaos. Let’s break it down.

The 10-year UST bond strutted its way above 4.735% like it just got a new haircut and wants everyone to notice. Meanwhile, oil prices hit their highest level since October, thanks to new sanctions on Russian oil and gas. If inflation were a house guest, this would be like feeding them energy drinks—pressure’s rising.

In job news, the BLS December report came out swinging, with 256,000 jobs created versus the 160,000 expected. But wait before you pop champagne: Note that the raw, unadjusted figure showed an 81,000-job loss. A quick seasonal adjustment turned that frown upside down. Magic? Maybe. Believable? Hmm.

Unemployment dipped to 4.1%, but consumers aren’t buying the rosy narrative. UofM surveys show that 50% of folks expect unemployment to rise. Déjà vu to 2007 and 2001, anyone?

The Fed? They’re cautiously sipping their coffee, noting labor strength but inflation that’s still a bit clingy. Bottom line: the bond market isn’t holding its breath for rate cuts anytime soon.

2025’s New Year’s resolution? Stay unpredictable—and keep the charts handy.

Have a great week!

Jonathon