Here are the highlights from Tina Tamboer’s presentation on March 2, 2023. 

SUPPLY = 35% below normal, and dropping

DEMAND = 18% below normal, but rising

NEW LISTINGS =  Down 16.3% from this time last year; this is the absolute lowest number of new listings going back to 2001.  We need more inventory!

LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT = Down 24% from February 2022

DAYS ON MARKET = 33; back to a normal range

MEDIAN SALES PRICE = $415,000 – this has been flat for 3 months

** From May 2022 to December 2022, the median sales price declined 13.5% but has stabilized

ANNUAL MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT APPRECIATION = Down 4.7% YOY and will continue to be negative until at least July due to the rapid appreciation we experienced last year

PRICE REDUCTIONS = Are declining; only 13.4% of listings had a price reduction in the last week of February 2023; this indicates less pressure on Sellers due to low supply

* * median price reduction was $10,000, but varies by price point

CONCESSIONS = 48% of all sales in February had seller paid concessions (down from 51% in January); median concession is $9,362

SALES PRICE VS. LIST PRICE RATIO = 97.2% of list price under $1M; 95% of list price over $1M


  • Greater Phoenix is back in a Seller Market (tracking 2015)
  • Cash buyers have retreated and FHA/first time home buyers are stepping up
  • We are seeing less downward pressure on price due to fewer new listings hitting the market

What’s reasonable to expect in the coming weeks/months?

  • For the next 3-5 months at least, YOY appreciation rates will be negative
  • Rate buydowns will continue to be a part of seller costs until rates and affordability reach an optimum level and/or seller equity runs out
  • Contract ratios will change with interest rates. Mortgage rate increases could slow demand and push market back into balance if they are sustained.

Please feel free to reach out with any questions.  We have more detailed notes if anyone would like them.  Bison Ventures, we understand that the current market is challenging and there is uncertainty regarding interest rates. We know we have many clients in need of a new home, and we do not want today’s interest rates to be a barrier. We are currently offering the Bison Refinance Program – After six on-time payments of your new mortgage, you are eligible for a Special Refinance for a period of 3 years from your closing date. This entails NO lender or appraisal fees.  Please let us know if any of your clients would be interested in discussing this further.  It’s a perfect opportunity to buy now, and lower rate later!