October 06, 2023
Dear Fans of Fall and Fiscal Fun,
As morning temps fall, so does the latest economic news – and it’s a comedy of errors! September gave us an ADP report that was about as surprising as finding a pumpkin in your apple orchard – a mere 89,000 job growth, mostly in the services sector. It’s like trying to pick apples and ending up with acorns. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that 336,000 jobs were created in September, which was much stronger than the estimates of 170,000. There were also upward revisions to the prior two months, totaling 119,000 jobs. The revisions were all due to an increase in government jobs, as private sector downward revisions totaled 12k in the two prior months. Jekyll and Hyde, my friends!
Treasury yields, on the other hand, had us on a rollercoaster ride, reaching heights not seen since folks were still obsessed with pumpkin spice lattes. Is the labor market finally shedding its summer shorts and donning a cozy sweater?
ADP also brought pay raise data: 5.9% for job stayers and 9% for switchers. These figures are cooling off faster than my pool. On November 1st, I get back into my cold plunge rhythm! My, how I’ve missed those three minutes of teeth chatter.
JOLTS reported rising job openings, but beware of double-counting and titles as confusing as deciding between a trick-or-treat costume.
Realtor.com’s odd metrics claim falling home prices, but it’s like measuring your pumpkin’s height with spaghetti – a bit tricky. Don’t let them spook your potential buyers with their creative metrics.
Lastly, PCE inflation danced with a 3-handle, but the core rate is showing stability, almost as rare as finding a candy corn-flavored unicorn.
Stay tuned for more economic fall follies!
Yours in seasonal economics,