Here are the highlights from Tina Tamboer’s presentation on February 2, 2023. 

SUPPLY = 34% below normal

DEMAND = 23% below normal

WEEKLY ACCEPTED CONTRACTS = 1,981 last week; the highest this has been since June 2022

LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT = Down 31% from January 2022, but rising sharply

RENTAL SUPPLY = has come down; around 3,600 active leases now vs. 4,094 in November

*median lease price has come down as well (from $2,400 in February 2022 to $2,225 now)

DAYS ON MARKET = 50 (down from 55); varies by price point

MEDIAN SALES PRICE = $415,750 (but when you deduct the average concession amount then it is actually $405,990)

** From May 2022 to now, the median sales price declined 13.5% (1.9% per month)

ANNUAL MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT APPRECIATION = Down 2.3% YOY and will continue to be negative for 5-7 months due to the rapid appreciation we experienced last year; sales price/sf is down 11.5% since May (-1.4% per month)

PRICE REDUCTIONS = Have declined significantly; we peaked with 4,427 price reductions per week in October and are at around 2,000 per week now

CONCESSIONS = 51% of all sales in January had seller paid concessions; median concession is $9,750

SALES PRICE VS. LIST PRICE RATIO = 96.5% of list price under $1M; 94% of list price over $1M


  • Arizona was in the top 5 states for population growth last year
  • After a 4 week Buyer Market, we are officially back in a weak Seller Market
  • We are seeing less downward pressure on price due to fewer new listings hitting the market in Q4 2022

What’s reasonable to expect in the coming weeks/months?

  • For the next 5-7 months at least, YOY appreciation rates will be negative
  • Rate buydowns will continue to be a part of seller costs until rates and affordability reach an optimum level
  • More traffic due to seasonal events