Cromford Market Update with Tina Tamboer, Senior Analyst | The Cromford Report ™

We were encouraged by Tina’s optimistic outlook for our spring season and her summary stating, “HOPE IS HERE”! We have moved back into a mild Seller’s Market.

Supply27% below normal, relatively flat over the past 30 days, with a mild uptick
Demand26% below normal, and rising fast
New Listings7,884 new January listings (including Coming Soon); up 8.5% from January 2023 but still the second lowest on record for January since 2001.
Listings Under ContractDown 5% from this time last year; 3rd lowest on record for January since 2005
Days On Market40; down 12 days from January 2023
Median Sales Price$435,000; up 4.8% YOY
Annual Avg Sales Price/SQFT AppreciationUp 8% year-over-year; fueled by luxury homes and larger homes
– Under 2,500 sf (represented 81% of sales in ARMLS) = 6.5% YOY appreciation
– Over 2,500 sf (represented 19% of sales in ARMLS) = 10% YOY appreciation
Price Reductions13% in the last week of January; increasing
Sales Over Asking Price11% of January sales; been declining for four months
Concessions46% of all sales in January had seller-paid concessions; median concession is $9,750
– Tina expects this to come down, as concessions are the first thing to adjust as we move into a Seller’s Market
Sale Price/List Price Ratio97.4%  
RentsAlthough single-family rental rates are steady at $2,200/month, apartment rents are down 4.1%. – We need to monitor this, as rental rates are hugely significant in calculating inflation.
  • The drop in mortgage rates has increased demand, resulting in an uptick in accepted contracts.
  • After seven weeks in a Buyer’s Market, we are now back in a Seller’s Market, with 10/17 major cities reflecting that. The only Buyer’s Markets left are Buckeye, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Sun City.
  • Accepted contracts are expected to rise until April/May.
  • If you have buyers who need concessions, now is the time for them to buy. As market conditions continue to improve, concessions will be the first thing to go.
  • We are eager for the CPI Inflation Release on 2/13 and how mortgage rates respond. If rates continue to decline, we expect even increased demand and a jump in accepted contracts.
  • The year-over-year appreciation numbers will start to soften and come in line with the inflation rate.
  • Prices are not expected to decline, but mortgage payments might.
  • With this being an election year, we may see luxury purchases stall in Q5 and pick up in Q1 2025.

At Bison Ventures, we understand that the current market is challenging, and there is uncertainty regarding interest rates. We know we have many clients in need of a new home, and we do not want today’s interest rates to be a barrier. 

We are currently offering the Bison Refinance Program. After six on-time payments of a new mortgage, borrowers are eligible for a special refinance for three years from closing. This program entails NO lender or appraisal fees. It’s a perfect opportunity for your clients to buy now and lower their payments later!

Please feel free to reach out with any questions, and if you would like more detailed notes, please click here.