There has been so much misinformation about the real estate market in the national media lately, and our goal is always to provide our partners and clients with accurate, real time market data. As such, we host Tina Tamboer, Senior Analyst with the Cromford Report, monthly to help us spread the word about what is really happening in our local real estate market. Here are some highlights from her presentation on April 6, 2023.
Did you know that Greater Phoenix is back in a Seller Market? Our market has changed over the past 60 days, and 13 out of our 17 major cities in the Valley are now Seller Markets. There are only a handful of Buyer Market cities left: Buckeye, Maricopa, and Queen Creek. With mortgage rates coming down and the positive indicators Tina shared, we are hopeful for a strong Q2!
SUPPLY = 40% below normal, and dropping
DEMAND = 18% below normal
NEW LISTINGS = Down 18% from this time last year; this is the absolute lowest number of new listings added in Q1 going back to 2001. We need more inventory!
LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT = Down 25% from March 2022
DAYS ON MARKET = 31; historically normal
MEDIAN SALES PRICE = $415,000 – this has been flat for 3 months
** From May 2022 to December 2022, the median sales price declined 13.5% but has stabilized
ANNUAL MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT APPRECIATION = Down 4.8% YOY and will continue to be negative until at least July due to the rapid appreciation we experienced last year
PRICE REDUCTIONS = Are declining; only 13% of listings had a price reduction in the last week of March 2023; this indicates less pressure on Sellers due to low supply
* * median price reduction was $10,000, but varies by price point
CONCESSIONS = 47% of all sales in February had seller paid concessions; median concession is $8,940 (down from $9,700 the month prior)
SALES PRICE VS. LIST PRICE RATIO = 98.1% of list price
SUMMARY
- Greater Phoenix is in a Seller Market (tracking 2015)
- FHA/first time home buyers are stepping up
- We are seeing less downward pressure on price due to fewer new listings hitting the market
What’s reasonable to expect in the coming weeks/months?
- For the next 3-5 months at least, YOY appreciation rates will be negative
- Leading metrics in Greater Phoenix do not support continued downward pressure on price for most cities
- Rate buydowns will continue to be a part of seller costs until rates and affordability reach an optimum level and/or rates come down
- Mortgage rate volatility is worse than the rate itself – we need stability for both buyers and sellers to move
Please feel free to reach out with any questions. We have more detailed notes if anyone would like them. Bison Ventures, we understand that the current market is challenging and there is uncertainty regarding interest rates. We know we have many clients in need of a new home, and we do not want today’s interest rates to be a barrier. We are currently offering the Bison Refinance Program – After six on-time payments of your new mortgage, you are eligible for a Special Refinance for a period of 3 years from your closing date. This entails NO lender or appraisal fees. Please let us know if any of your clients would be interested in discussing this further. It’s a perfect opportunity to buy now, and lower rate later!
