Top of the day to you!

I hope this email finds you in good spirits and ready for a bit

of St. Patrick’s Day cheer, because boy, do we have some news for you straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) pot of gold!

Seems like February was feeling quite sprightly with the creation of 275,000 jobs, a wee bit stronger than the expected 200,000. But hold onto your shamrocks because there’s a twist in this tale! Just like every month. January’s figure got a bit of a makeover, dropping from 353,000 to 229,000, and December took a dip, too, going from 333,000 to 290,000. That’s a lot of jigging around!

Now, don’t be fooled by those tricky leprechauns of statistics! The birth-death model added One hundred fifty-one thousand jobs, but as unreliable as a four-leaf clover in predicting the weather. Without it, job growth would have been cut in half!

But here’s where the blarney really kicks in! The Household Survey was like a sneaky leprechaun, showing 184,000 job losses. And the labor force itself grew by 150,000, causing the unemployment rate to rise from 3.7% to 3.9%. Most FED members see the unemployment rate of 4.1% as their marker for easing off.

There’s a whole heap of talk from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve about rate cuts and easing cycles, sending rate cut odds soaring like a rocket from the Emerald Isle!

So, while we may not have found a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow of data, there’s certainly a fair share of surprises lurking beneath the surface. Keep your eyes peeled for more twists and turns in this tale of the job market!

Wishing you all the luck of the Irish,


Below is a chart of the 10-year Treasury bond activity. It looks to be taking a wee nap. Notice the last lock is where we ping-ponged off the 100-day Moving average (“DMA”). Since then, we have rallied big time, blowing through the 25-DMA, the 200-DMA, and, most recently, the 50-DMA. The media is beginning to unleash the news that mortgage rates are dropping, so get ready for the phone to ring. Please count on me and the Bison Team to help support you and your clients as a proven resource.